market intelligence for real probabilities
we compare polymarket with leading bookmakers — no tips, just math.
How it works
Every price is a mirror of fear, conviction, and bias. polyquant measures that distortion — the gap between perception and probability.
collect polymarket orderbooks alongside bookmaker odds snapshots. markets mirror collective sentiment — we capture both sides of that reflection.
convert all raw odds into fair implied probabilities by removing bookmaker margin (vig). this reveals the unbiased consensus. fair_pᵢ = (1 / oddsᵢ) / Σⱼ(1 / oddsⱼ)
highlight edges — where polymarket deviates from the bookmaker consensus. that gap is the signal: emotion versus math.
Roadmap
demo bot launch
internal prototype for live market parsing and Telegram interaction. validated core data flow.
edge leaderboard build
automated aggregation of probabilities and real-time ranking by edge strength.
release
public launch of polyquant.io — analytics interface, leaderboard, and backend sync.
odds tracking
submit a match to watch; we subscribe it to the feed. every bookmaker odds change triggers a push — timestamp, book, and new implied probability.
buy/sell limits monitoring
place a limit order and get fill alerts. we notify on partial/total fills with filled size, remaining size, and average execution price.
FAQ
Quick answers to the questions we hear most about polyquant and the bookmaker comparisons.
- what is an edge?
- it’s the difference between polymarket’s implied probability and the bookmaker’s fair probability after removing the vig. positive edges show where sentiment misprices reality.
- do you give advice?
- no — polyquant doesn’t give tips or predictions. we surface probabilities, not opinions. you interpret the signal.
- how fresh is the data?
- the leaderboard refreshes automatically every 60 seconds. all edges are recalculated continuously using both data sources.
- why compare polymarket and bookmakers?
- bookmakers use structured models and margins; polymarket reflects sentiment and bias. comparing the two exposes where emotion bends probability.
- is this about betting?
- no — it’s about measuring distortion. understanding how collective belief diverges from mathematical expectation. information is the new liquidity.